NOTE: This text is being regularly updated. Current data is from October 30th 2016. In addition to our central prediction method (the BASON survey described in the previous blog) we will use a series of benchmarks for comparison compiled from a multitude of available polls, predictions, models, markets, etc. whose predictions we...
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Over the next month Oraclum I.S. will be engaged in forecasting the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential elections. It has been a hectic electoral year, culminating in the unexpected nomination of Donald Trump from the Republican Party and the unexpectedly difficult path to nomination for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. So...
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The results of the Croatian election came as a surprise to many. All the pollsters (in total only 4, in addition to our BASON survey) gave the SDP-led coalition an advantage from 3 to 7 seats over HDZ. In fact, the election result for the first two parties was the exact opposite of what the polls were saying – it was SDP that...
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This week we were focused on predicting the outcome of the forthcoming Croatian general election. We did the same thing last year and were not expecting to do Croatian elections again, at least until the local elections in 2017. However, the new government – formed after almost 2 months of post-election negotiations –...
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Over the next month and a half, Oraclum I.S. Ltd. will be engaged in forecasting the outcome of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, colloquially referred to as the ‘Brexit’ referendum. A brief introduction into the political landscape so far. Back in January 2013, in response to mounting pressure from his own...
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In our election forecasting model we combined election polls, previous electoral results and trends, and, last but not least, a number of socio-economic parameters that we uncovered to be important determinants of voter preferences. In our earlier text we already summarized how we did this and which variables we decided to put in:...
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