https://oraclum.eu/ Election Data Analysis Wed, 28 Mar 2018 22:25:10 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 https://oraclum.eu/uk-general-election-poll-tracker-not-prediction/#comment-36 Fri, 09 Jun 2017 12:26:05 +0000 http://oraclum.eu/?p=799#comment-36 […] big gun to predict a hung parliament with their new prediction model!). As we have surveyed in our previous text, a vast majority of the poll-based and model-based forecasters, just like with Brexit and the 2015 […]

]]> https://oraclum.eu/new-rankings-uk-pollsters/#comment-35 Wed, 07 Jun 2017 20:56:18 +0000 http://oraclum.eu/?p=790#comment-35 […] mentioned in the previous post, we used our ranking of UK pollsters to combine our own adjusted polling average. The idea behind […]

]]> https://oraclum.eu/method-benchmarks-brexit-referendum/#comment-34 Tue, 06 Jun 2017 22:59:50 +0000 http://oraclum.eu/?p=469#comment-34 […] polling average[1], the benchmark we usually use to compare ourselves against (e.g. see the benchmark for Brexit, or the same benchmark for the US).  As you might see the adjusted polling average was wrong in […]

]]> https://oraclum.eu/called-predicted-trump-victory-amazing-precision/#comment-33 Tue, 06 Jun 2017 22:55:21 +0000 http://oraclum.eu/?p=721#comment-33 […] in the US didn’t help. When virtually everyone was predicting a clear Hilary victory (everyone except us, of course!), Trump’s victory undermined faith even in the best in the business. And while there was […]

]]> https://oraclum.eu/ranking-uk-pollsters/#comment-32 Tue, 06 Jun 2017 22:53:49 +0000 http://oraclum.eu/?p=490#comment-32 […] year, before the Brexit referendum, we offered the first unbiased ranking of UK pollsters. This was our effort to vindicate some in the polling business during a time of widespread public […]

]]> https://oraclum.eu/france-final-prediction/#comment-29 Mon, 08 May 2017 08:22:37 +0000 http://oraclum.eu/?p=766#comment-29 […] Once again, we have correctly predicted an outcome of a general election. As we said on Saturday: […]

]]> https://oraclum.eu/will-next-president-france-make-prediction/#comment-28 Sat, 06 May 2017 08:33:51 +0000 http://oraclum.eu/?p=754#comment-28 […] who participated and made our prediction possible. We analyzed the first round results in our previous post this week, and concluded that although this election seems like a landslide victory for Macron, things […]

]]> https://oraclum.eu/will-next-us-president-forecasting-election2016/#comment-27 Tue, 22 Nov 2016 14:20:16 +0000 http://oraclum.eu/?p=609#comment-27 […] compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method was arguably the most precise, having missed only 3 states: Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. […]

]]> https://oraclum.eu/election-2016-others-saying/#comment-26 Sun, 20 Nov 2016 12:05:56 +0000 http://oraclum.eu/?p=687#comment-26 […] we discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method was arguably the most precise, having missed only 3 […]

]]> https://oraclum.eu/called-predicted-trump-victory-amazing-precision/#comment-25 Sun, 20 Nov 2016 12:05:22 +0000 http://oraclum.eu/?p=721#comment-25 […] the previous post we discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by […]

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