Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump?

In the previous post we discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method was arguably the most precise, having missed only 3 states: Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. However, for Wisconsin we did not have enough survey respondents, so […]

We called it! How we predicted a Trump victory

As our regular readers know by now our last week’s prediction on Donald Trump winning the US election was spot on! We correctly predicted all the key swing states (PA, FL, NC, OH), and even that Hillary could get more votes but lose the electoral college vote. Here are our results as I presented them […]

Who will be the next US President? Forecasting #Election2016

Over the next month Oraclum I.S. will be engaged in forecasting the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential elections. It has been a hectic electoral year, culminating in the unexpected nomination of Donald Trump from the Republican Party and the unexpectedly difficult path to nomination for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. So far, according to […]