Recent From #Election2016

Bias in approval ratings

Bias in approval ratings Posted on Apr 9, 2018

Recent From Data visualization

The summer of lost hopes

The summer of lost hopes Posted on Jul 21, 2020

Recent From Election forecasting

Post-election uncertainty: exactly as fo...

Post-election uncertainty: exactly as foretold Posted on Nov 4, 2020

Recent Posts

France: our final prediction

May 06, 17 France: our final prediction

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

Our survey for the French elections is now officially complete. We would first and foremost like to thank everyone who participated and made our prediction possible. We analyzed the first round results in our previous post this week, and concluded that although this election seems like a landslide victory for Macron, things...

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Who will be the next President of France?

May 03, 17 Who will be the next President of France?

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

From the team that successfully predicted the victory of Donald Trump comes a new prediction survey for the upcoming second round of the French presidential elections. Vuk Vukovic, Oraclum’s director and Ilona Lahdelma, his colleague from Oxford with in-depth knowledge of french politics, discuss the results of the first...

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Comparing Brexit and Trump

Jan 12, 17 Comparing Brexit and Trump

Posted by in #Election2016, Featured

What the voters found important in the Brexit referendum and the US elections?   After the two most turbulent political events of 2016, the UK Brexit referendum and the victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections, one cannot help to make comparisons between the two. Both attracted the same type of voter support...

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Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump?

In the previous post we discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method was arguably the most precise, having missed only 3 states: Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. However, for Wisconsin we did not have...

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We called it! How we predicted a Trump victory

As our regular readers know by now our last week’s prediction on Donald Trump winning the US election was spot on! We correctly predicted all the key swing states (PA, FL, NC, OH), and even that Hillary could get more votes but lose the electoral college vote. Here are our results as I presented them in a Facebook post on the...

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Election 2016: Our final prediction

The time has come. We are now finished with our prediction poll. First and foremost we would like to thank everyone who participated and gave us their predictions. We ran them through our best model and here are the results: It looks like a Trump victory. We’re predicting Trump to take the key swing states: Florida, North...

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Election 2016: What the others are saying?

As you may or may not know, we have been tracking a considerable amount of benchmark predictions over the past month or so, to get a feel of where the race is going. We tracked everything, from polling aggregation sites to a number of poll and non-poll based models, to the prediction markets, and even the GJP superforecasters.  The...

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