Comparing Brexit and Trump

What the voters found important in the Brexit referendum and the US elections?   After the two most turbulent political events of 2016, the UK Brexit referendum and the victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections, one cannot help to make comparisons between the two. Both attracted the same type of voter support […]

Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump?

In the previous post we discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method was arguably the most precise, having missed only 3 states: Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. However, for Wisconsin we did not have enough survey respondents, so […]

We called it! How we predicted a Trump victory

As our regular readers know by now our last week’s prediction on Donald Trump winning the US election was spot on! We correctly predicted all the key swing states (PA, FL, NC, OH), and even that Hillary could get more votes but lose the electoral college vote. Here are our results as I presented them […]

Election 2016: Our final prediction

The time has come. We are now finished with our prediction poll. First and foremost we would like to thank everyone who participated and gave us their predictions. We ran them through our best model and here are the results: It looks like a Trump victory. We’re predicting Trump to take the key swing states: […]

Election 2016: What the others are saying?

As you may or may not know, we have been tracking a considerable amount of benchmark predictions over the past month or so, to get a feel of where the race is going. We tracked everything, from polling aggregation sites to a number of poll and non-poll based models, to the prediction markets, and even […]

Election2016: A comparison of predictions

NOTE: This text is being regularly updated. Current data is from October 30th 2016.  In addition to our central prediction method (the BASON survey described in the previous blog) we will use a series of benchmarks for comparison compiled from a multitude of available polls, predictions, models, markets, etc. whose predictions we intend to update regularly (every […]

Who will be the next US President? Forecasting #Election2016

Over the next month Oraclum I.S. will be engaged in forecasting the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential elections. It has been a hectic electoral year, culminating in the unexpected nomination of Donald Trump from the Republican Party and the unexpectedly difficult path to nomination for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. So far, according to […]