Last year, before the Brexit referendum, we offered the first unbiased ranking of UK pollsters. This was our effort to vindicate some in the polling business during a time of widespread public anger over their failure to correctly predict the outcome of the 2015 UK general election (despite the fact that making predictions is not...
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Once again, we have correctly predicted an outcome of a general election. As we said on Saturday: “The overall likelihood of a Le Pen victory is below 1%. Unless there is a huge Black Swan event on Sunday, Emmanuel Macron should be the next President of France.” Emmanuel Macron is indeed the next President of France. He won by a,...
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Our survey for the French elections is now officially complete. We would first and foremost like to thank everyone who participated and made our prediction possible. We analyzed the first round results in our previous post this week, and concluded that although this election seems like a landslide victory for Macron, things...
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From the team that successfully predicted the victory of Donald Trump comes a new prediction survey for the upcoming second round of the French presidential elections. Vuk Vukovic, Oraclum’s director and Ilona Lahdelma, his colleague from Oxford with in-depth knowledge of french politics, discuss the results of the first...
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What the voters found important in the Brexit referendum and the US elections? After the two most turbulent political events of 2016, the UK Brexit referendum and the victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections, one cannot help to make comparisons between the two. Both attracted the same type of voter support...
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In the previous post we discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method was arguably the most precise, having missed only 3 states: Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. However, for Wisconsin we did not have...
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