Post-election uncertainty: exactly as foretold

What comes next? As many of our regular readers and followers know this year we did not go public with our election predictions because we had a few high-paying clients that wanted the results before anyone else. This is why we opened our predictions to anyone who wanted to buy them for as low as $50 or $100 (many people did, which...

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Which swing states should we focus on in the 2020 election?

Oraclum’s US election survey is up and running. If you’re from the US you can access it here and give a prediction on who wins in your state. Try it, it’s fun! If you want to know who is leading the race order one of our election prediction packages. Swing states — focus on three in particular Every US election is decided by a...

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Comparing the 2020 US election polls & predictions

What the others are saying UPDATE: October 22nd 2020 In the 2016 election the accuracy of our prediction was all the more impressive given the failure of every single benchmark we compared ourselves to. This election we will once again follow the same benchmarks and compare our predictions to theirs. We are looking at the most...

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Who Wins in 2020?

  Back in 2016 we were a team of scientists that used a novel methodology to successfully predict Brexit and Trump, both within a single percentage point margin of error. It was a combination of our wisdom of crowds survey and a network analysis of friendship links on Facebook & Twitter (methodology described below). Four...

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The summer of lost hopes

Jul 21, 20 The summer of lost hopes

Posted by in Data visualization, Featured

At one moment there was hope that summertime will naturally suppress the spread of COVID-19. This hope is now gone and the uncertainty sets in. In the beginning of June, the COVID-19 trends in the US looked quite promising. The incidence rate (number of cases per 100,000 people) was about 10 or less, with the pandemic hotspots in...

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Slowdown from lockdown

May 09, 20 Slowdown from lockdown

Posted by in Featured

COVID-19’s path of death and analysis of Google mobility data As the economic and social fallout from the “lockdown” measures takes its toll across the world the public debate has been increasingly focusing on the rationality of such drastic measures. This debate is both highly relevant and highly emotional. The problem is that...

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