Who Wins in 2020?

  Back in 2016 we were a team of scientists that used a novel methodology to successfully predict Brexit and Trump, both within a single percentage point margin of error. It was a combination of our wisdom of crowds survey and a network analysis of friendship links on Facebook & Twitter (methodology described below). Four...

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There is only one Democratic primary candidate that outperforms Trump on Twitter

Nov 08, 19 There is only one Democratic primary candidate that outperforms Trump on Twitter

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

Analysis of Twitter hashtags of candidates for US elections done by Prospectus Research in collaboration with Oraclum Intelligence Systems uncovered a host of interesting results. Judging solely by online activity over the past two weeks, only a single candidate in the Democratic primary race outperformed Trump on Twitter – Tulsi...

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France: post-election analysis

May 08, 17 France: post-election analysis

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

Once again, we have correctly predicted an outcome of a general election. As we said on Saturday: “The overall likelihood of a Le Pen victory is below 1%. Unless there is a huge Black Swan event on Sunday, Emmanuel Macron should be the next President of France.” Emmanuel Macron is indeed the next President of France. He won by a,...

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France: our final prediction

May 06, 17 France: our final prediction

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

Our survey for the French elections is now officially complete. We would first and foremost like to thank everyone who participated and made our prediction possible. We analyzed the first round results in our previous post this week, and concluded that although this election seems like a landslide victory for Macron, things...

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Who will be the next President of France?

May 03, 17 Who will be the next President of France?

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

From the team that successfully predicted the victory of Donald Trump comes a new prediction survey for the upcoming second round of the French presidential elections. Vuk Vukovic, Oraclum’s director and Ilona Lahdelma, his colleague from Oxford with in-depth knowledge of french politics, discuss the results of the first...

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Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump?

In the previous post we discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method was arguably the most precise, having missed only 3 states: Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. However, for Wisconsin we did not have...

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