Post-election uncertainty: exactly as foretold

What comes next? As many of our regular readers and followers know this year we did not go public with our election predictions because we had a few high-paying clients that wanted the results before anyone else. This is why we opened our predictions to anyone who wanted to buy them for as low as $50 or $100 (many people did, which...

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Which swing states should we focus on in the 2020 election?

Oraclum’s US election survey is up and running. If you’re from the US you can access it here and give a prediction on who wins in your state. Try it, it’s fun! If you want to know who is leading the race order one of our election prediction packages. Swing states — focus on three in particular Every US election is decided by a...

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Comparing the 2020 US election polls & predictions

What the others are saying UPDATE: October 22nd 2020 In the 2016 election the accuracy of our prediction was all the more impressive given the failure of every single benchmark we compared ourselves to. This election we will once again follow the same benchmarks and compare our predictions to theirs. We are looking at the most...

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Who Wins in 2020?

  Back in 2016 we were a team of scientists that used a novel methodology to successfully predict Brexit and Trump, both within a single percentage point margin of error. It was a combination of our wisdom of crowds survey and a network analysis of friendship links on Facebook & Twitter (methodology described below). Four...

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There is only one Democratic primary candidate that outperforms Trump on Twitter

Nov 08, 19 There is only one Democratic primary candidate that outperforms Trump on Twitter

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

Analysis of Twitter hashtags of candidates for US elections done by Prospectus Research in collaboration with Oraclum Intelligence Systems uncovered a host of interesting results. Judging solely by online activity over the past two weeks, only a single candidate in the Democratic primary race outperformed Trump on Twitter – Tulsi...

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France: post-election analysis

May 08, 17 France: post-election analysis

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

Once again, we have correctly predicted an outcome of a general election. As we said on Saturday: “The overall likelihood of a Le Pen victory is below 1%. Unless there is a huge Black Swan event on Sunday, Emmanuel Macron should be the next President of France.” Emmanuel Macron is indeed the next President of France. He won by a,...

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