On yesterday’s historic referendum, Britain has voted Leave. It was decided by a small margin, 51.9% to 48.1% in favour of Leave, with turnout at a high 72.2% (highest since the 1990s). The outcome dealt a decisive blow against PM David Cameron who announced his resignation in the morning. The markets have had a strong […]
Our final prediction is a close victory for Remain. According to our BAFS method Remain is expected to receive a vote share of 50.5%, giving it a 52.3% chance of winning. Our prediction produces a probability distribution shown on the graph above (see explanation on the right), presenting a range of likely scenarios for the […]
We have started with our Brexit survey. I invite all of my UK readers to give it a go. You will be helping us test our new BAFS prediction method. In other words you will be helping us make a better prediction for the upcoming UK EU referendum. As you may or may not know, […]
The following blog has been published first at the Oxford University Politics Blog. Here is just the first part explaining the logic behind our BAFS method. Is it possible to have a more accurate prediction by asking people how confident they are that their preferred choice will win? As the Brexit referendum date approaches, the […]
Oraclum Intelligence Systems provides custom designed 3D visualizations suitable for live TV broadcast. Images and video below are snapshots from an example of 3D real-time interactive presentation of election and statistical results shown on the map of Croatia.
Oraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd is a non-partisan start-up interested in experimental testing of forecasting models on real-life electoral data. We aim to use a Facebook survey of UK voters, along with our unique set of Bayesian forecasting methods to try and pick out the best and most precise prediction method in lieu of the upcoming […]