Who will be the next US President? Forecasting #Election2016

Over the next month Oraclum I.S. will be engaged in forecasting the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential elections. It has been a hectic electoral year, culminating in the unexpected nomination of Donald Trump from the Republican Party and the unexpectedly difficult path to nomination for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. So...

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What went wrong and what went right with our latest prediction?

Sep 15, 16 What went wrong and what went right with our latest prediction?

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

The results of the Croatian election came as a surprise to many. All the pollsters (in total only 4, in addition to our BASON survey) gave the SDP-led coalition an advantage from 3 to 7 seats over HDZ. In fact, the election result for the first two parties was the exact opposite of what the polls were saying – it was SDP that...

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Final prediction of the Croatian 2016 general election

Sep 09, 16 Final prediction of the Croatian 2016 general election

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

This week we were focused on predicting the outcome of the forthcoming Croatian general election. We did the same thing last year and were not expecting to do Croatian elections again, at least until the local elections in 2017. However, the new government – formed after almost 2 months of post-election negotiations –...

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Analysis of the Brexit referendum results and our predictions

Jun 24, 16 Analysis of the Brexit referendum results and our predictions

Posted by in Featured

On yesterday’s historic referendum, Britain has voted Leave. It was decided by a small margin, 51.9% to 48.1% in favour of Leave, with turnout at a high 72.2% (highest since the 1990s). The outcome dealt a decisive blow against PM David Cameron who announced his resignation in the morning. The markets have had a strong negative...

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Brexit: Our final prediction

Jun 23, 16 Brexit: Our final prediction

Posted by in Featured

Our final prediction is a close victory for Remain. According to our BAFS method Remain is expected to receive a vote share of 50.5%, giving it a 52.3% chance of winning. Our prediction produces a probability distribution shown on the graph above (see explanation on the right), presenting a range of likely scenarios for the given...

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Our Brexit survey has started!

Jun 16, 16 Our Brexit survey has started!

Posted by in Featured

We have started with our Brexit survey. I invite all of my UK readers to give it a go. You will be helping us test our new BAFS prediction method. In other words you will be helping us make a better prediction for the upcoming UK EU referendum. As you may or may not know, the polls are showing the country is split. At this point, a...

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