Who will be the next President of France?

May 03, 17 Who will be the next President of France?

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

From the team that successfully predicted the victory of Donald Trump comes a new prediction survey for the upcoming second round of the French presidential elections. Vuk Vukovic, Oraclum’s director and Ilona Lahdelma, his colleague from Oxford with in-depth knowledge of french politics, discuss the results of the first...

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Comparing Brexit and Trump

Jan 12, 17 Comparing Brexit and Trump

Posted by in #Election2016, Featured

What the voters found important in the Brexit referendum and the US elections?   After the two most turbulent political events of 2016, the UK Brexit referendum and the victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections, one cannot help to make comparisons between the two. Both attracted the same type of voter support...

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Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump?

Nov 20, 16 Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump?

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

In the previous post we discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method was arguably the most precise, having missed only 3 states: Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. However, for Wisconsin we did not have...

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We called it! How we predicted a Trump victory

Nov 13, 16 We called it! How we predicted a Trump victory

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

As our regular readers know by now our last week’s prediction on Donald Trump winning the US election was spot on! We correctly predicted all the key swing states (PA, FL, NC, OH), and even that Hillary could get more votes but lose the electoral college vote. Here are our results as I presented them in a Facebook post on the...

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Election 2016: Our final prediction

The time has come. We are now finished with our prediction poll. First and foremost we would like to thank everyone who participated and gave us their predictions. We ran them through our best model and here are the results: It looks like a Trump victory. We’re predicting Trump to take the key swing states: Florida, North...

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