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Analysis of the Brexit referendum result...

Analysis of the Brexit referendum results and our predictions Posted on Jun 24, 2016

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3D interactive visualization of election...

3D interactive visualization of election results Posted on Jun 6, 2016

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We will be forecasting the Brexit refere...

We will be forecasting the Brexit referendum Posted on May 19, 2016
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Analysis of the Brexit referendum results and our predictions

Jun 24, 16 Analysis of the Brexit referendum results and our predictions

Posted by in Brexit, Featured

On yesterday’s historic referendum, Britain has voted Leave. It was decided by a small margin, 51.9% to 48.1% in favour of Leave, with turnout at a high 72.2% (highest since the 1990s). The outcome dealt a decisive blow against PM David Cameron who announced his resignation in the morning. The markets have had a strong negative...

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Brexit: Our final prediction

Jun 23, 16 Brexit: Our final prediction

Posted by in Brexit, Featured

Our final prediction is a close victory for Remain. According to our BAFS method Remain is expected to receive a vote share of 50.5%, giving it a 52.3% chance of winning. Our prediction produces a probability distribution shown on the graph above (see explanation on the right), presenting a range of likely scenarios for the given...

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Our Brexit survey has started!

Jun 16, 16 Our Brexit survey has started!

Posted by in Brexit, Featured

We have started with our Brexit survey. I invite all of my UK readers to give it a go. You will be helping us test our new BAFS prediction method. In other words you will be helping us make a better prediction for the upcoming UK EU referendum. As you may or may not know, the polls are showing the country is split. At this point, a...

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A new forecasting method for Brexit

Jun 09, 16 A new forecasting method for Brexit

Posted by in Brexit, Featured

The following blog has been published first at the Oxford University Politics Blog. Here is just the first part explaining the logic behind our BAFS method.  Is it possible to have a more accurate prediction by asking people how confident they are that their preferred choice will win? As the Brexit referendum date approaches, the...

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3D interactive visualization of election results

Jun 06, 16 3D interactive visualization of election results

Posted by in Data visualization

Oraclum Intelligence Systems provides custom designed 3D visualizations of election results suitable for showing during live TV broadcast. Images and video below are snapshots from an example of real-time interactive presentation of election and statistical results on a 3D map of Croatia. The visualization is created in Ventuz...

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Ranking UK pollsters

Jun 01, 16 Ranking UK pollsters

Posted by in Brexit, Featured

Oraclum Intelligence Systems Ltd is a non-partisan start-up interested in experimental testing of forecasting models on real-life electoral data. We aim to use a Facebook survey of UK voters, along with our unique set of Bayesian forecasting methods to try and pick out the best and most precise prediction method in lieu of the...

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Our method and benchmarks for Brexit referendum

May 25, 16 Our method and benchmarks for Brexit referendum

Posted by in Brexit, Featured

Our prediction method rests primarily upon our Facebook survey, where we use a variety of Bayesian updating methodologies to filter out internal biases in order to offer the most precise prediction. In essence we ask our participants to express their preference of who they will vote for (e.g. Leave or Remain for the Brexit...

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