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Comparing Brexit and Trump

Comparing Brexit and Trump Posted on Jan 12, 2017

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3D interactive visualization of election...

3D interactive visualization of election results Posted on Jun 6, 2016

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France: post-election analysis

France: post-election analysis Posted on May 8, 2017
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UK 2017 GE results: resurgence of two-party politics

Jun 09, 17 UK 2017 GE results: resurgence of two-party politics

Posted by in Featured

The 2017 UK General Election produced another upset for election forecasters and most pollsters (kudos to YouGov for being the only big gun to predict a hung parliament with their new prediction model!). As we have surveyed in our previous text, a vast majority of the poll-based and model-based forecasters, just like with Brexit...

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UK general election poll tracker (NOT our prediction)

Jun 07, 17 UK general election poll tracker (NOT our prediction)

Posted by in Featured

We are NOT predicting the 2017 UK general election. Unfortunately. They came too soon given their specifics (one must do polling in a number of toss-up constituencies to make sure to deliver an accurate prediction). But we did keep track of what all other polls were saying. What seemed like a Conservative landslide only last month...

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Our NEW rankings of UK pollsters

Jun 04, 17 Our NEW rankings of UK pollsters

Posted by in Featured

Last year, before the Brexit referendum, we offered the first unbiased ranking of UK pollsters. This was our effort to vindicate some in the polling business during a time of widespread public anger over their failure to correctly predict the outcome of the 2015 UK general election (despite the fact that making predictions is not...

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France: post-election analysis

May 08, 17 France: post-election analysis

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

Once again, we have correctly predicted an outcome of a general election. As we said on Saturday: “The overall likelihood of a Le Pen victory is below 1%. Unless there is a huge Black Swan event on Sunday, Emmanuel Macron should be the next President of France.” Emmanuel Macron is indeed the next President of France. He won by a,...

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France: our final prediction

May 06, 17 France: our final prediction

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

Our survey for the French elections is now officially complete. We would first and foremost like to thank everyone who participated and made our prediction possible. We analyzed the first round results in our previous post this week, and concluded that although this election seems like a landslide victory for Macron, things...

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Who will be the next President of France?

May 03, 17 Who will be the next President of France?

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

From the team that successfully predicted the victory of Donald Trump comes a new prediction survey for the upcoming second round of the French presidential elections. Vuk Vukovic, Oraclum’s director and Ilona Lahdelma, his colleague from Oxford with in-depth knowledge of french politics, discuss the results of the first...

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Comparing Brexit and Trump

Jan 12, 17 Comparing Brexit and Trump

Posted by in #Election2016, Featured

What the voters found important in the Brexit referendum and the US elections?   After the two most turbulent political events of 2016, the UK Brexit referendum and the victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections, one cannot help to make comparisons between the two. Both attracted the same type of voter support...

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