Previous

Recent From #Election2016

Election 2016: Our final prediction

Election 2016: Our final prediction Posted on Nov 8, 2016

Recent From Data visualization

3D interactive visualization of election...

3D interactive visualization of election results Posted on Jun 6, 2016

Recent From Election forecasting

Post-election analysis: have the polls u...

Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump? Posted on Nov 20, 2016
Next

Recent Posts

Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump?

Nov 20, 16 Post-election analysis: have the polls underestimated Trump?

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

In the previous post we discussed the precision of our model’s result, particularly compared to predictions made by other forecasters and pollsters. On a state-by-state level our BASON method was arguably the most precise, having missed only 3 states: Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. However, for Wisconsin we did not have...

read more

We called it! How we predicted a Trump victory

Nov 13, 16 We called it! How we predicted a Trump victory

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

As our regular readers know by now our last week’s prediction on Donald Trump winning the US election was spot on! We correctly predicted all the key swing states (PA, FL, NC, OH), and even that Hillary could get more votes but lose the electoral college vote. Here are our results as I presented them in a Facebook post on the...

read more

Election 2016: Our final prediction

The time has come. We are now finished with our prediction poll. First and foremost we would like to thank everyone who participated and gave us their predictions. We ran them through our best model and here are the results: It looks like a Trump victory. We’re predicting Trump to take the key swing states: Florida, North...

read more

Election 2016: What the others are saying?

As you may or may not know, we have been tracking a considerable amount of benchmark predictions over the past month or so, to get a feel of where the race is going. We tracked everything, from polling aggregation sites to a number of poll and non-poll based models, to the prediction markets, and even the GJP superforecasters.  The...

read more

Election2016: A comparison of predictions

NOTE: This text is being regularly updated. Current data is from October 30th 2016.  In addition to our central prediction method (the BASON survey described in the previous blog) we will use a series of benchmarks for comparison compiled from a multitude of available polls, predictions, models, markets, etc. whose predictions we...

read more

Who will be the next US President? Forecasting #Election2016

Over the next month Oraclum I.S. will be engaged in forecasting the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential elections. It has been a hectic electoral year, culminating in the unexpected nomination of Donald Trump from the Republican Party and the unexpectedly difficult path to nomination for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. So...

read more

What went wrong and what went right with our latest prediction?

Sep 15, 16 What went wrong and what went right with our latest prediction?

Posted by in Election forecasting, Featured

The results of the Croatian election came as a surprise to many. All the pollsters (in total only 4, in addition to our BASON survey) gave the SDP-led coalition an advantage from 3 to 7 seats over HDZ. In fact, the election result for the first two parties was the exact opposite of what the polls were saying – it was SDP that...

read more